Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 74.291155 84.188523 95.771110 110.558904 129.292412 152.757916 185.285012
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 60.630184 72.797027 88.501236 111.072065 144.252383 194.332156 283.458451
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 50.880391 63.014423 79.548499 105.032541 146.237521 217.245879 372.691080
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 47.602199 60.826692 79.883100 111.566966 168.773477 285.560426 635.402932
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 43.402029 56.555194 76.197321 110.544653 177.596803 333.820821 964.719707
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 39.643867 52.383688 71.905471 107.348159 180.873559 372.323849 1422.421050
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 36.012854 47.992626 66.643593 101.313722 176.130205 386.461417 1873.070535
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 35.336662 48.017353 68.498505 108.765822 204.600001 536.416467 7096.824675
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 34.780218 48.137792 70.486187 116.945620 239.631062 788.723407 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 33.410343 46.787600 69.685128 119.091029 259.495225 1035.333119 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 31.766191 44.834152 67.547561 117.823176 268.388362 1254.809314 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30.186897 42.867423 65.175847 115.576526 273.205557 1480.948485 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 28.611896 40.878107 62.718943 113.092025 277.879030 1791.067777 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 27.361248 39.372160 61.066171 112.360231 289.815964 2402.589082 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 25.656090 36.966259 57.447596 106.095353 276.166795 2413.003517 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 25.389325 37.058171 58.747596 112.723117 323.660450 5826.837887 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 24.423279 35.835723 57.276275 111.682806 334.998576 9702.613445 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 23.344211 34.346986 55.134596 108.434624 333.145397 13507.252009 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 22.093633 32.489156 52.107475 102.305268 312.800999 11783.017939 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 22.080815 32.875975 53.775298 109.875029 377.637614 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 22.073312 33.268646 55.500688 118.189485 464.227679 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 21.616612 32.788116 55.271118 120.371146 511.353133 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 20.963193 31.898475 54.054576 119.081823 527.555651 NaN NaN